Filmed on April 24th, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, they analyze:
Most asset classes are roughly unchanged since the Iranian conflict began, with oil and Strait of Hormuz transit volumes as the clear outliers
Volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies spiked sharply then collapsed, with demand for downside protection now back near pre-event levels
Hours worked to buy a tank of gas shows why $80-$110 oil today is a very different story than $140-$150 oil going into the 2008 financial crisis
Initial jobless claims remain stable, providing a continued floor for passive flows into equity and bond markets
Tech forward P/E ratios have come down substantially, making the "tech is expensive" narrative increasingly outdated relative to current fundamentals
Aggregate equity positioning sits near neutral, with retail speculative exposure well below prior peaks
Emerging market carry trades have been the standout winners through the conflict period, with Brazil attracting foreign institutional capital while local investors remain underexposed to their own stock market
Private lending has grown from 10% to 38% of all U.S. lending over the past decade, raising questions about systemic risk that traditional credit spread metrics can't fully capture
The crude oil futures curve shows the market pricing the Iranian situation as a near-term disruption, not a structural shift
The copper-to-gold ratio has started recovering after an extended period of underperformance, and they're watching it as a medium-term signal on global growth appetite