Filmed on April 24th, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, they analyze:
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Most asset classes are roughly unchanged since the Iranian conflict began, with oil and Strait of Hormuz transit volumes as the clear outliers
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Volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies spiked sharply then collapsed, with demand for downside protection now back near pre-event levels
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Hours worked to buy a tank of gas shows why $80-$110 oil today is a very different story than $140-$150 oil going into the 2008 financial crisis
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Initial jobless claims remain stable, providing a continued floor for passive flows into equity and bond markets
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Tech forward P/E ratios have come down substantially, making the "tech is expensive" narrative increasingly outdated relative to current fundamentals
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Aggregate equity positioning sits near neutral, with retail speculative exposure well below prior peaks
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Emerging market carry trades have been the standout winners through the conflict period, with Brazil attracting foreign institutional capital while local investors remain underexposed to their own stock market
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Private lending has grown from 10% to 38% of all U.S. lending over the past decade, raising questions about systemic risk that traditional credit spread metrics can't fully capture
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The crude oil futures curve shows the market pricing the Iranian situation as a near-term disruption, not a structural shift
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The copper-to-gold ratio has started recovering after an extended period of underperformance, and they're watching it as a medium-term signal on global growth appetite
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