Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill cover the data behind three of the most consequential market stories heading into the second half of 2026: AI capital spending and adoption, corporate earnings and valuations, and where interest rates are actually headed.
In this episode:
- Major tech firm CapEx approaching $160 billion and corporate investment overtook consumer spending for the first time ever
- AI adoption is spreading from large enterprises to businesses with fewer than 10 employees
- NVIDIA sits at the center of a $500 billion Wall Street backstop for circular AI infrastructure financing
- S&P 500 earnings growth at its strongest first half since 2021, accelerating without a prior earnings recession
- Net income margins inflected higher in 2026 and are approaching 17%, the highest in over a decade
- US equity valuations relative to the rest of the world have reset to a six-year low, below the 10-year average
- PPI came in softer than expected, pulling rate hike expectations back across markets
- Fed and market pricing converge around one rate hike or none before year end