Filmed on June 16, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill cover the SpaceX IPO and what it signals about new equity supply, they discuss the surge in levered ETF use, Chairman Warsh's first Fed meeting, dollar positioning, China's weakening consumer, oil reserve depletion, and copper's sharp move relative to gold.
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US fiscal deficit on pace to exceed prior years, record money market balances sitting on the sidelines
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Computer hardware and software prices rising fast on AI CapEx-driven memory chip shortages
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SpaceX IPO among the largest in recent history, with a prospectus TAM listed as space and time
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Large-cap shift from buybacks to equity issuance accelerating: Google, Nvidia raising capital
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New equity supply wave building as supply begins to match demand for the first time in years
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S&P 500 free cash flow compressed by CapEx reinvestment even as valuations look reasonable
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Levered ETF use surging, retail all in with leverage, ahead of triple witching
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Two-year yield above Fed funds rate heading into Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair
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Warsh signaling far less forward guidance and fewer press conferences going forward
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Speculative dollar positioning swung sharply bullish after Iran, potential reversal if dollar rolls over
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Chinese retail sales falling and projected to weaken further, domestic consumer increasingly absent
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Copper sharply outperforming gold since February on structural demand from AI, EVs, and data centers
