--- title: "Watch: Rate Hike Fears, Inflation Under the Surface & Brazil's Election" description: Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill cover the trends shaping markets right now image: https://boguesoundfinancial.com/hubfs/ChatGPT%20Image%20Sep%2016%2c%202026%2c%2003_01_58%20PM.png --- [Skip to content](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/market-insights/watch-rate-hike-fears-inflation-under-the-surface-brazils-election#main-content) [![Bogue Sound Financial](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/hs-fs/hubfs/theme/bogue_logo_white.png?width=169&height=80&name=bogue_logo_white.png "Bogue Sound Financial")](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/) - [Our Promise](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-promise) - [Our Services](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-services) - [Our Approach](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-approach) - [Our Team](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-team) - Resources Show submenu for Resources - [Market Insights](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/market-insights) - [Planning Tools](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/planning-tools) - [Compound Interest Calculator](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/compound-interest-calculator) - [Client Login](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/client-login) - [Get in Touch](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/contact-us) - [Our Promise](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-promise) - [Our Services](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-services) - [Our Approach](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-approach) - [Our Team](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-team) - Resources Show submenu for Resources - [Market Insights](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/market-insights) - [Planning Tools](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/planning-tools) - [Compound Interest Calculator](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/compound-interest-calculator) - [Client Login](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/client-login) - [Get in Touch](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/contact-us) ![](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/hubfs/ChatGPT%20Image%20Sep%2016%2c%202026%2c%2003_01_58%20PM.png) 2026 Sep 18 # Watch: Rate Hike Fears, Inflation Under the Surface & Brazil's Election Filmed on September 12th, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill run through what the inflation data is showing under the surface, why long-end yields keep rising even as the Fed holds, and what a tightening Brazilian election could mean for global capital flows. In this episode: - Inflation rising but far less broad-based than the last rate hike cycle, with energy and computer products doing most of the work - Core CPI still well below 2022 levels despite a monthly pop - Nominal growth vs. the two-year yield showing the Fed would be hiking into already restrictive territory - The S&P 500 at a critical horizontal line with CTA and vol control positioning pulling in opposite directions - Breadth signals sending conflicting readings, one flashing caution, another pointing to a potential buy zone - The bond market pricing a 90% chance of a rate hike next week while the Fed's dot plot has yet to move - Long-end yields rising on term premium, not Fed action, as deficit concerns build - Dollar bulls positioned for a rally that hasn't materialized, setting up a potential unwind - Brazil's election tightening sharply, with Flávio Bolsonaro pulling ahead and markets unwinding hedges - Gold caught between the long-term debasement trade and near-term rate hike risk [Bogue Sound Financial](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/market-insights/author/bogue-sound-financial) ![bogue_logo_white](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/hubfs/theme/bogue_logo_white.png "bogue_logo_white") Address 4206 Bridges Street Suite G, Morehead City, NC 28557 Phone Number 252-727-2147 Email gavin@boguesoundfinancial.com - [Our Services](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-services) - [Our Approach](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-approach) - [Our Team](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-team) - [Get in Touch](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/contact-us) - [Compound Interest Calculator](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/compound-interest-calculator) - [Our Services](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-services) - [Our Approach](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-approach) - [Our Team](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/#our-team) - [Get in Touch](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/contact-us) - [Compound Interest Calculator](https://boguesoundfinancial.com/compound-interest-calculator) Sollinda Capital Management, LLC (“SCM,” “we” or the “Firm”) is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. 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