Market Insights & Commentary | Bogue Sound Financial

Watch: Inflation, AI CapEx, Rising Rates & Global Markets

Written by Bogue Sound Financial | 2026 May 18

Filmed on May 8th, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, they analyze:

  • CPI has spiked back higher, driven by energy, raising the "higher for longer" inflation question all over again, just as markets were moving past the disinflationary narrative

  • Hyperscaler AI CapEx is now approaching $800B to $1.1T for 2026 to 2027, with investors increasingly asking when the ROI materializes

  • Despite fears that AI would kill software developer jobs, Indeed job postings for software engineers have actually ticked up, and the broader labor market is not breaking

  • S&P 500 earnings continues to beat estimates at a healthy clip, with companies having grown into their previously stretched forward P/E ratios

  • Discretionary investor positioning remains underweight relative to systematic strategies, suggesting the pain trade is still to the upside

  • Near-term Bloomberg sentiment indicators signal the recent tech rally may be getting overdone, concentrated in semiconductors and AI names

  • The 30-year Treasury yield is back at 5%, a level it has not sustained since pre-2008, and what happens next could reprice growth assets globally

  • Emerging markets are outperforming for a second straight year, led by Korea and Taiwan on AI and memory demand, with Brazil showing its own idiosyncratic tailwinds

  • WTI oil has settled above $90 post-Iran conflict, and the longer it stays there, the more cross-asset markets will have to price that new reality

  • Gold and metals have consolidated significantly after a crowded run-up, and Ryan and Justin are watching whether risk appetite and rate expectations bring buyers back