Filmed on May 21st, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, they analyze:
PPI rising on headline and core basis, with energy feeding through into other input costs
Wages no longer outpacing inflation in aggregate, though the K-shaped economy complicates the picture
AI CapEx from big tech contributed more to US GDP in 2025 than the entire US consumer
DRAM chip demand continues to outpace supply, a key driver of Korean equity performance
China's global export market share keeps growing despite tariffs, taking ground from Germany in particular
US financial conditions remain loose despite inflation pickup
S&P 500 earnings posted their best non-crisis recovery period in roughly two decades
Semiconductor valuations historically elevated, with the bull case tied to a national security-driven AI buildout
Market breadth has narrowed again, with a small number of companies driving most year-to-date gains
Fed rate cut expectations have reversed, with market pricing now reflecting the possibility of hikes
Long-end yields rising in the US, UK, and Japan, with bonds structurally underowned relative to stocks
MOVE Index well above the VIX, an unusual divergence between bond and equity volatility
Truflation showing significantly less inflationary pressure than official CPI
Oil's year-to-date move is one of the sharpest on record going back to 1986
Brazil election dynamics shifting after a banking scandal, but foreign capital inflows continuing on high real rates
Gold pulling back to prior highs, a level that would now act as technical support if it holds