Market Insights & Commentary | Bogue Sound Financial

Watch: AI CapEx Arms Race, Rising PPI & the Brazilian Real

Written by Bogue Sound Financial | 2026 May 29

Filmed on May 21st, 2026, Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill break down the most critical market trends affecting your portfolio. In this episode, they analyze:

  • PPI rising on headline and core basis, with energy feeding through into other input costs

  • Wages no longer outpacing inflation in aggregate, though the K-shaped economy complicates the picture

  • AI CapEx from big tech contributed more to US GDP in 2025 than the entire US consumer

  • DRAM chip demand continues to outpace supply, a key driver of Korean equity performance

  • China's global export market share keeps growing despite tariffs, taking ground from Germany in particular

  • US financial conditions remain loose despite inflation pickup

  • S&P 500 earnings posted their best non-crisis recovery period in roughly two decades

  • Semiconductor valuations historically elevated, with the bull case tied to a national security-driven AI buildout

  • Market breadth has narrowed again, with a small number of companies driving most year-to-date gains

  • Fed rate cut expectations have reversed, with market pricing now reflecting the possibility of hikes

  • Long-end yields rising in the US, UK, and Japan, with bonds structurally underowned relative to stocks

  • MOVE Index well above the VIX, an unusual divergence between bond and equity volatility

  • Truflation showing significantly less inflationary pressure than official CPI

  • Oil's year-to-date move is one of the sharpest on record going back to 1986

  • Brazil election dynamics shifting after a banking scandal, but foreign capital inflows continuing on high real rates

  • Gold pulling back to prior highs, a level that would now act as technical support if it holds